Certain Uncertainties

Prof Jonny Freeman

In December 2024 we published Introduction to Moments, the CoSTAR Foresight Lab’s initial contribution to mapping ways forward for the UK to maintain its world-leading position in gaming, TV, film, performance, and digital entertainment. In the weeks since we have been delighted at the number of conversations we have been part of and heard others engage in around that report. We are sure they will continue. 

In our latest publication, Certain Uncertainties, we share the data describing the contextual foundations of the scenarios we presented in Introduction to Moments. These are the forces affecting the world in which CoSTAR and the wider creative sector’s activities are unfolding, viewed from a UK perspective. 

Today’s world feels unstable, labile, changing. Humanity is facing complex challenges, including war, the climate emergency, changes in population dynamics, and industrial upheaval. Our social fabric has frayed, and technology has made us vulnerable as much as powerful. Economies are complex, and our changing environment will demand new ways to anticipate chaos. Politics are transactional, in flux, and the old rules no longer apply. This is a model of our present moment. 

This report presents foresight research conducted by the CoSTAR Foresight Lab in partnership with i2 media research limited. Forces, or drivers, are a common method in foresight studies, and can be used to make sense of the wider context. Often they allow us to hypothesise around possible cause-and-effect relationships in emergent, on-the-ground issues. Forces driving change are certain and well-known, though their trajectory is uncertain. Typically, they have a clear presence dating back a decade and are expected to influence the next decade in uncertain ways. They are therefore, certain uncertainties. 

The framework we present is deliberately high-level and can be used across sectors in the United Kingdom. We welcome readers to drag and drop pages from this report, to run workshops and bring people together around making sense of change, and what wise decision-making looks like today. Forces are a mental model, they are not an endeavour in accuracy but in plausibility. They are a tool we will adapt as events unfold. We will review them at the end of each year to ensure their continued relevance, and we plan for this research to form the basis of a live, interactive resource for public use in due course. 

You can download the report here.

Enjoy the read. If anything you read sparks an idea for feedback, collaboration or comment please get in touch at costarforesightlab@gold.ac.uk.